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Odds & Probability

No-Vig Odds

Also known as: No-Juice

Odds that have been adjusted to remove the bookmaker's margin (vig/juice), representing a fairer assessment of the true probabilities. To calculate no-vig odds, divide each outcome's implied probability by the total overround. No-vig lines are useful for identifying which side of a market has more value.

Related Odds & Probability Terms

American Odds (Moneyline Odds)
Odds format used primarily in the United States, expressed as positive or negative numbers. Positive odds (+150) show how much profit you win on a $100 bet. Negative odds (-200) show how much you need to bet to win $100 profit. +150 means a $100 bet wins $150 profit; -200 means you must bet $200 to win $100.
Implied Probability (IP)
The probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds, expressed as a percentage. Calculated as: IP = (1 / Decimal Odds) x 100. For example, odds of 4.00 imply a 25% probability. Implied probability includes the bookmaker's margin, so the total of all outcomes in a market exceeds 100%.
Odds Conversion
The process of converting odds between decimal, fractional, and American formats. Decimal to fractional: subtract 1, then simplify (2.50 = 3/2). Decimal to American: if odds >= 2.00, American = (Decimal - 1) x 100; if odds < 2.00, American = -100 / (Decimal - 1). Conversion is essential for comparing odds across different platforms.
Positive Expected Value (+EV)
A bet where the expected return is positive, meaning it will be profitable in the long run if placed repeatedly. A +EV bet occurs when the odds offered are higher than the true probability warrants. For example, getting odds of 3.00 on an outcome with a 40% chance of occurring. Professional bettors exclusively seek +EV opportunities.
Decimal Odds
The most common odds format in Europe and Australia, expressed as a single positive number (e.g., 2.50). To calculate your payout, multiply your stake by the decimal odds. A $10 bet at 2.50 returns $25 total ($15 profit + $10 stake). Decimal odds of 2.00 represent an even-money bet.
Probability Distribution
A mathematical function that describes the likelihood of all possible outcomes in a betting event. Common distributions used in sports betting include the Poisson distribution for goals/points, the normal distribution for point spreads, and the binomial distribution for win/loss sequences. Understanding distributions helps bettors build predictive models.
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