Bankroll Management

A contrarian strategy of betting against the public or popular opinion. The theory is that bookmakers shade their lines toward the popular side, creating value on the less popular outcome. Fading works best in high-profile events where public money heavily influences the line in one direction.

The probability that a bettor will lose their entire bankroll given their edge, bet size, and number of bets. Even profitable bettors face risk of ruin if they stake too large a percentage of their bankroll. Reducing unit size dramatically lowers risk of ruin. A common target is keeping RoR below 1%.

A strategy where the bettor identifies and bets on outcomes where the bookmaker's odds are higher than the true probability warrants. A value bet exists whenever the offered odds exceed the fair odds. Over time, consistently placing value bets leads to profit regardless of individual results. This is the core principle behind professional sports betting.

The difference between the odds at which you placed a bet and the final closing odds. If you consistently get better odds than the closing line, you are likely a profitable bettor. CLV is considered the single best predictor of long-term betting profitability, even more reliable than short-term results.

A statistical probability distribution commonly used to model the number of goals, points, or events in a sports match. By estimating the expected average (lambda) of events, the Poisson formula calculates the probability of exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, etc. events occurring. It is the foundation of many football betting models.

A staking strategy where the same amount is wagered on every bet, regardless of the odds or perceived edge. For example, always betting 2% of your initial bankroll. Flat staking is simple, limits risk, and is suitable for bettors who are not confident in precisely estimating probabilities.