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Poisson Distribution

A statistical probability distribution commonly used to model the number of goals, points, or events in a sports match. By estimating the expected average (lambda) of events, the Poisson formula calculates the probability of exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, etc. events occurring. It is the foundation of many football betting models.

Related Strategies Terms

Dutching
A strategy where you back multiple selections in the same market with different bookmakers, distributing stakes to ensure the same profit regardless of which selection wins. Unlike arbitrage, Dutching does not guarantee a profit on every outcome but can distribute risk while targeting specific outcomes you consider underpriced.
Unit Size (Unit)
A standardized bet amount used to measure and compare betting performance. One unit typically represents 1-2% of your total bankroll. Using units allows bettors to track performance consistently regardless of the absolute amounts wagered. For example, being up 50 units conveys a clear picture of profitability.
Flat Staking
A staking strategy where the same amount is wagered on every bet, regardless of the odds or perceived edge. For example, always betting 2% of your initial bankroll. Flat staking is simple, limits risk, and is suitable for bettors who are not confident in precisely estimating probabilities.
Kelly Criterion (Kelly)
A mathematical formula used to determine the optimal stake size for a bet based on your edge and the odds offered. Formula: Kelly Stake = (bp - q) / b, where b = decimal odds - 1, p = probability of winning, q = probability of losing (1 - p). Many bettors use a fraction of Kelly (e.g., quarter Kelly) to reduce variance.
Matched Betting
A strategy that uses bookmaker promotions, free bets, and bonuses to guarantee a profit by backing at a bookmaker and laying at an exchange. Matched betting is technically risk-free when executed correctly and is a common starting point for new bettors to build a bankroll.
Staking Plan
A predefined system that determines how much to bet on each wager based on specific criteria. Common staking plans include flat staking, percentage of bankroll, Kelly Criterion, and level stakes. A disciplined staking plan is essential for long-term profitability and protecting your bankroll from large drawdowns.
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