Kelly Criterion

The discipline of managing your betting funds to maximize long-term profit while minimizing the risk of going broke. Key principles include setting a dedicated bankroll, using consistent unit sizes (typically 1-5% of bankroll per bet), never chasing losses, and adjusting stakes based on bankroll fluctuations.

A statistical phenomenon where extreme results tend to move closer to the average over time. In betting, a team on a long winning streak is likely to see their performance normalize. Understanding regression helps bettors avoid overreacting to short-term results and identify value where the market has overcorrected.

A statistical probability distribution commonly used to model the number of goals, points, or events in a sports match. By estimating the expected average (lambda) of events, the Poisson formula calculates the probability of exactly 0, 1, 2, 3, etc. events occurring. It is the foundation of many football betting models.

Another term for ROI in betting, representing the average percentage return per bet. Calculated as (Total Profit / Total Staked) x 100. A 5% yield means you return an average of $0.05 for every $1.00 wagered. Yield is the standard measure used to evaluate and compare tipster performance.

A strategy where the bettor identifies and bets on outcomes where the bookmaker's odds are higher than the true probability warrants. A value bet exists whenever the offered odds exceed the fair odds. Over time, consistently placing value bets leads to profit regardless of individual results. This is the core principle behind professional sports betting.

A staking strategy where the same amount is wagered on every bet, regardless of the odds or perceived edge. For example, always betting 2% of your initial bankroll. Flat staking is simple, limits risk, and is suitable for bettors who are not confident in precisely estimating probabilities.